Question
I had a bet in March, saying that JJ Redick would not be a lottery pick. The tone of the argument, from the other side, was that he was awesome, the best shooter in the draft, and would no doubt be a top-13 pick. IF, as happened, Redick didn't leave school, should the bet still be on for next year? I think technically, yes (which is disappointing to me), though spiritually, no. Besides, if you were the other guy, you've got to be a little emasculated now, right?
posted by aaron @ 11:16 AM
5 Comments:
Don't you win the bet? I mean, the bet was "JJ will be/won't be a lottery pick" and I am fairly certian he will not be a lottery pick. next year is a new draft and a new draft means a new bet.
You can keep the bet on. JJ won't be a lottery pick, because he won't be a very good pro. He's, at best, a Steve Kerr/Craig Hodges who can hit an open shot, but can't create it. Those guys aren't taken top 13. It should be said, though, that if you're up for a long term bet, in 10 years JJ will have had a better career than half of the lottery.
Bar, WHo. ARe. YOu? Bet is on, by the way.
That's like saying that Mateen would be better than MoPete. Absurd.
The key to this bet is whether the Cavs are picking in the lottery. JJ Reddick is clearly better than Trajan Langdon (11th pick), although would likely end up (at best) a Steve Kerr type as "bar" mentioned. Also, the bet is completely different year to year. The Kapono example lays it out perfectly. In drafts, having potential is more important than being proven at the college level . . . 16 points per game as a sophmore with upside will get more attention than a peaking senior with 19 pt per game.
http://www.nba.com/history/lottery_picks.html
These are the lottery picks since 1985, when the lottery was created. In most years, the lottery is at best a 50-50 proposition. Especially with the recent spate of high school kids, the lottery is full of potential, much of which is never realized. A guy like Reddick could carve out a Ferry-esque career with regards to longevity. He offers less potential, which takes him out of the lottery, but is more of a sure bet.
BAR- my initials. From Columbus...you know.
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